On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin NUPL stat is back in positive territory, suggesting that the market as a whole is making a profit again.
Bitcoin NUPL latest trend could indicate the bottom is already in
As one analyst noted in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC NUPL breaking above the neutral market could be a sign that the bottom has hit.
The “Net Unrealized Gain/Loss” (or “NUPL” for short) is an indicator defined as the difference between the market and realized caps divided by the market capitalization.
In simpler terms, what this stat tells us is the profit/loss ratio among investors in the current Bitcoin market.
The indicator works by looking at the on-chain history of each coin to see what price it last moved at. If this selling price of a coin was lower than the current BTC value, then that particular coin now has some profit. Otherwise it is in loss at the moment.
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When the value of the NUPL is greater than zero, it means that investors in the Bitcoin market as a whole are making a profit. On the other hand, the negative value of the indicator implies that the overall market is currently in a state of loss.
Here is a chart showing the trend in the BTC NUPL over the past few years:
The value of the metric seems to have surged up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the chart above, the quant has highlighted the relevant zones of the bear market trend for the Bitcoin NUPL.
It seems that some time after a deep dive below zero, a return to positive values was a sign of bottoming during the previous bear markets.
Currently, the indicator is back at a positive value after seeing an increase recently. This means that investors as a whole are currently making a slight profit.
If the past cycles have anything to offer, this trend could mean that the bottom has already been reached for this Bitcoin bear market.
However, as the graph shows, a break with green NUPL values doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the bear. It merely indicated that the crypto has already experienced the worst.
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Past bear markets have lasted much longer than current ones, so it’s possible that if a similar pattern follows, the market will fall back into a loss and move sideways for a while, before some significant bullish momentum builds.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is hovering around $22.6k, up 10% over the past week.
BTC has slumped down during the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com